Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (2024)

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Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (1)

Why your vote matters in 2024

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (2)

In the 2000 presidential race, the election came down to Florida, and the winner of the Sunshine State won by less than 0.1 percent of the vote.

October 16, 2024

The 2024 election could have a big impact on education policy

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (3)

States are voting on school choice and more in 2024.

October 16, 2024

Why voting patterns may shift this election

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (4)

538’s Galen Druke asks The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik if analysts should be skeptical of data that shows a shift in voting patterns.

October 15, 2024

Could recent hurricanes affect the presidential election?

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (5)

The 538 team discusses how hurricane season and election season collide, prompting it to become a political talking point this election cycle.

October 15, 2024

What the polls say about the 2024 election

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (6)

538’s Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss the latest polling data showing an extremely close presidential race.

October 15, 2024

How Hurricanes Helene and Milton could affect the 2024 election

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (7)

Even if they don't change voters' minds, they could dampen turnout.

October 15, 2024

How Georgia could swing back to the GOP in 2024

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (8)

Our fourth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.

October 14, 2024

3 states could vote to mandate paid sick days

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (9)

Paid leave and minimum wage policies have passed by ballot initiative before.

October 11, 2024

Trump is holding more campaign events than Harris

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (10)

But it probably doesn't matter.

October 10, 2024

How redistricting could play a key role in the fight to control the House in 2024

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (11)

North Carolina, New York, Alabama, Georgia and Louisiana redrew their districts.

October 9, 2024

The 2024 race to control the House couldn't be tighter

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (12)

Introducing 538's forecast for U.S. House races.

October 8, 2024

How 538's 2024 House election forecast works

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (13)

Here's everything that goes into this year's model.

October 8, 2024

Are polls that use AI chatbots even polls? | 538 Politics podcast

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (14)

The 538 team plays another round of "Good or Bad Use of Polling” to discuss how an experimental polling company, Aaru, uses AI chatbots to obtain information about political preferences.

October 8, 2024

The election might not be that close after all | 538 Politics podcast

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (15)

The 538 team discusses whether average polling error in presidential elections could translate into a landslide victory for either candidate.

October 8, 2024

Will there be a racial realignment in the 2024 election? | 538 Politics podcast

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (16)

538’s Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss crosstabs and whether they can predict a racial realignment on Election Day.

October 8, 2024

What Americans think about the war in Gaza, a year after the Oct. 7 attacks

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (17)

They've grown less supportive of Israel's actions and U.S. military aid.

October 7, 2024

Which way are key demographic groups leaning in the 2024 election?

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (18)

Keep an eye on the gender gap and a possible racial realignment in November.

October 4, 2024

Black and Arab American voters could swing Michigan's 2024 election

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (19)

Our third deep dive into polling and other data in the seven swing states.

October 3, 2024

How does a VP debate affect candidate favorability? | 538 Politics Podcast

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (20)

538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how polls show a vice presidential debate has little to no impact on a candidate's favorability.

October 3, 2024

What issues matter to Americans? | 538 Politics Podcast

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (21)

538's Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss how important voters rank climate change, national security and the Middle East ahead of the election.

October 3, 2024

Does a VP debate impact how voters see presidential candidates?

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (22)

The 538 team and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss whether a vice presidential debate can impact how viewers see presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

October 3, 2024

What early polls say about who won the VP debate

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (23)

Americans are split over whether Vance or Walz won.

October 2, 2024

How Harris is distancing herself from Biden on the economy | 538 Politics podcast

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (24)

The 538 team discusses the strategic differences between the Harris campaign when addressing inflation and the economy compared to President Joe Biden.

October 1, 2024

How a scandal in New York could affect the national House race

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (25)

538's Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss allegations of possible violations of ethics rules by Rep. Anthony D'Esposito and what it means for which party wins the House.

October 1, 2024

Will foreign policy impact the 2024 election? | 538 Politics podcast

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (26)

The 538 team discusses conflict in the Middle East and whether it impacts whom Americans will cast their ballot for in November.

October 1, 2024

Why VP debates aren't all that important

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (27)

Historically, they haven't really moved the polls.

October 1, 2024

The 2024 election could come down to a single tipping-point state

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (28)

A close contest means one state could decide the outcome.

September 30, 2024

Why you can't predict polling error in advance | 538 Politics podcast

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (29)

The 538 team discusses how polls have underestimated Democratic and Republican support in the past and how unpredictable the direction of polling error can be.

September 27, 2024

Why the GOP could win Nevada for the first time in 20 years

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (30)

Our second deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.

September 27, 2024

The importance of polls and public opinion | 538 Politics podcast

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (31)

538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk about the role polling can have in a democracy, from measuring issues voters consider important to providing insight into presidential elections.

September 27, 2024

What does a margin of error in polling mean? | 538 Politics podcast

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (32)

The 538 team discusses what you should know about the margin of error of national and state polls.

September 27, 2024

Efforts to elect more Republican women stalled in the 2024 primaries

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (33)

But Democratic women could expand their ranks this year after a strong showing.

September 27, 2024

Can you guess how Americans feel about Trump's platform?

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (34)

Test your knowledge of what the public thinks about Trump's policies.

September 25, 2024

Why Democrats are doing better in Senate races than presidentially

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (35)

The 538 team discusses what our new polling averages say in the states that will decide the Senate majority.

September 24, 2024

Will the Electoral College benefit Republicans again? | 538 Politics podcast

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (36)

538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley talk about the Electoral College advantage in past elections and how it could play out in 2024.

September 24, 2024

What does early voting data reveal? | 538 Politics podcast

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (37)

The 538 team discusses whether early voting data is a good indicator of who will win the 2024 presidential election.

September 24, 2024

How Harris talks about race and gender on the campaign trail | 538 Politics podcast

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (38)

538's Galen Druke, University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird and Pew Research Center’s Kiana Cox discuss Kamala Harris' approach to talking about her race and gender during the 2024 presidential campaign.

September 20, 2024

What to know about 'Black Voters for Trump' | 538 Politics podcast

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (39)

538's Galen Druke and the University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird talk about whether or not Black voters who support Trump are representative of a breakdown in this voting block.

September 20, 2024

How important is identity to Black voters? | 538 Politics podcast

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (40)

University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird and Pew Research Center’s Kiana Cox discuss data on "linked fate" across interracial voters and voters of different political ideologies.

September 20, 2024

Is the gender gap growing? | 538 Politics podcast

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (41)

538's Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik discuss how young women are more liberal and what that means for the future electorate.

September 18, 2024

Does the Taylor Swift effect include voting? | 538 Politics podcast

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (42)

The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik discusses how Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris has affected voter registration and the presidential race.

September 18, 2024

What do voters think about political violence? | 538 Politics podcast

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (43)

538's Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik talk about the percentage of Americans open to a variety of manifestations, from protesting to more serious violence.

September 18, 2024

Make your picks on the 2024 Interactive Electoral Map

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (44)

ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl explains how to make your predictions on the 2024 presidential race.

September 17, 2024

UPDATED Oct. 25, 2024, at 11:40 AM

538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.

Trump wins 53 times out of 100

in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.

Harris wins 47 times out of 100.

There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (45)

Trump

000

Harris

000

No winner

000

simulations

Harris wins

Trump wins

Electoral vote margin

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (46)

What are the latest national polls influencing the forecast?

We adjust polls for house effects, mode, partisanship, voter likelihood and third parties and weight them based on their firm’s 538 pollster rating and how often it polls.

DatesPollster
Sponsor
538 Pollster RatingResultNet result
Oct. 22-24

1.8

Harris

49%

47%

Trump

Harris +2
Oct. 19-24

No rating

Harris

50%

50%

Trump

Even
Oct. 21-23

Senate Opportunity Fund

Republican-funded

1.1

Harris

46%

47%

Trump

Trump +1
Oct. 20-23

3.0

Harris

46%

47%

Trump

Trump +1
Oct. 18-23

1.6

Harris

52%

45%

Trump

Harris +7
Oct. 21-22

1.6

Harris

48%

49%

Trump

Trump +1
Oct. 19-22

No rating

Harris

45%

47%

Trump

Trump +2
Oct. 19-22

2.9

Harris

49%

46%

Trump

Harris +3
Oct. 21

1.8

Harris

45%

47%

Trump

Trump +2
Oct. 19-21

1.8

Harris

48%

48%

Trump

Even

Dates

Pollster
Sponsor

538 Pollster Rating

Result

Net result

Oct. 22-24

1.8

49%

47%

Harris +2

Oct. 19-24

No rating

50%

50%

Even

Oct. 21-23

1.1

46%

47%

Trump +1

46%

47%

Trump +1

Oct. 18-23

1.6

52%

45%

Harris +7

Oct. 21-22

1.6

48%

49%

Trump +1

Oct. 19-22

2.9

49%

46%

Harris +3

Oct. 19-21

1.8

48%

48%

Even

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (47)

Latest updates

LAST UPDATED Oct. 18

For the first time since 538 published our presidential election forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Trump has taken the lead (if a very small one) over Harris. As of 3 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 18, our model gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes. The model gives Harris a 48-in-100 chance.

The change in candidate’s fortunes came after a slow drip-drip-drip of polls showed the race tightening across the northern and Sun Belt battlegrounds. In our forecast of the popular vote in Pennsylvania, the race has shifted from a 0.6-point lead for Harris on Oct. 1 to a 0.2-point lead for Trump; In Michigan, a 1.8-point Harris lead is now just 0.4 points; And in Wisconsin, a 1.6-point lead for Harris is now an exact tie between the two candidates. Meanwhile, Arizona and Georgia have flipped from toss-ups to “Lean Republican” states.

Still, a word of caution: You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast “flipping” to Trump, but it’s important to remember that a 52-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris — both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate. While Trump has undeniably gained some ground over the past couple weeks, a few good polls for Harris could easily put her back in the “lead” tomorrow. Our overall characterization of the race — that it’s a toss-up — remains unchanged.

538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.

—G. Elliott Morris

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (48)

How has the forecast changed over time?

The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get new data. Uncertainty will decrease as we get closer to Election Day.

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (49)

Who’s favored to win each state?

Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote.

Hover over a state to see its forecast

State Name

XX EVs

Chance of a win

XX out of 100 Harris win

XX out of 100 Trump win

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (50)

Solid D

≥98 in 100%

Likely D

≥75 in 100%

Lean D

≥60 in 100%

Toss-up

Both <60 in 100%

Lean R

≥60 in 100%

Likely R

≥75 in 100%

Solid R

≥98 in 100%

Chance of a win based on 538’s forecast

Likeliest tipping-point states

Maine and Nebraska’s congressional districts are shown separately because those states split their Electoral College votes, allotting two to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each district.

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (51)

What are the closest races?

Use the table below to sort states by name, forecasted margin of victory or two different metrics of how much influence they have over the outcome.

A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (52)

Median

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (53)

95% of outcomes fall in this range

State

Forecasted margin of victory

Vote share

VPI

Tipping point

State

Forecasted margin of victory

A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (54)

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (55)

What does the path to 270 look like?

Our “snake” chart orders the states by forecasted margin of victory. Scroll to the left or right to see uncompetitive states; more contested states are in the middle. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes.

Zoom out

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (56)

How the popular vote translates into electoral votes

This graph shows the national popular vote margin and Electoral College margin in every model simulation. It shows you how often a candidate wins the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (57)

What do the polls or fundamentals alone say?

Our forecast is based on a combination of the polls and various economic and political variables we call the “fundamentals.” This chart shows how we get from the polls today to a forecast for Election Day.

Median

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (58)

95% of outcomes fall in this range

Margin of victory

Polling averages

Polling averages

Polling average

The state of public opinion today, according only to 538’s average of national polls.

Adjusted polling average

The national polling average adjusted for results of state polls and the effects of party conventions.

Forecast components

Weight

Forecast of polling average on Election Day

The adjusted polling average with uncertainty intervals that account for potential movement in the race between now and Election Day. This does not account for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.

00

Fundamentals-only forecast

What our fundamentals model alone would predict the popular vote margin to be.

00

Full forecast

Our final forecast of the popular vote, based on a weighted average of the polls and fundamentals using the weights above. This accounts for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.

Forecast components may not exactly add up to full forecast because of rounding and random sampling. (When combining the components, we take a random sample of simulations from each, and they may not exactly match the full sample of simulations.)

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (59)

Unusual and not-so-unusual scenarios

The probability of each outcome below, according to our simulations.

Harris wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes)11 out of 100
Trump wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes)3 out of 100
Harris wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes35 out of 100
Trump wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes49 out of 100
Harris wins the national popular vote66 out of 100
Trump wins the national popular vote34 out of 100
Harris wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points5 out of 100
Trump wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points1 out of 100
Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College19 out of 100
Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College<1 out of 100
No candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes<1 out of 100
Every state votes for the same party that it did in 20201 out of 100
Election is decided by a recount (winner's margin is <0.5% in a decisive state)8 out of 100
Election is decided by a smaller margin than the vote share for third-party candidates<1 out of 100
Harris wins at least one state Biden didn't win in 202043 out of 100
Trump wins at least one state he didn't win in 202083 out of 100

What’s happening in the other races?

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (60)Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (61)

What’s happening in the House of Representatives?

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (62)See House forecast

What’s happening in the Senate?

See Senate forecastWho Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (63)

Credits

How this works

Contact us

polls@fivethirtyeight.com

Download our data

Polls and model output

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (64)Go to a random state

Electoral College probability Latest polls Latest updates Forecast over time State probabilities Closest races Path to 270 Electoral vs. popular vote Polls vs. fundamentals Possible scenarios

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (75)Go to a random state

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (76)

Electoral College probabilityLatest pollsLatest updatesForecast over timeState probabilitiesClosest racesPath to 270Electoral vs. popular votePolls vs. fundamentalsPossible scenarios
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (2024)

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